Last season I didn’t think Sebastien Bourdais could take a third championship. This year I don’t see a solid contender to keep him from winning a fourth.

When the Panoz DP01 was introduced, many people believed it would be the great equalizer for the series. The Lola chassis then raced by Newman/Haas had many mechanical differences when compared to the Lola chassis ran by other teams.

Forsythe and RuSPORT were able to take the fight to the defending champion, and for a while it looked like a three peat was not in the cards for the Frenchman. Why do I think four in a row is a near shoe in? Simple, there is no other team with the current resources and consistency to beat Bourdais on a race-to-race basis.

For starters, when teams took delivery of their new Panoz chassis, their first job was disassembling and rebuild it, fixing any small assembly issues. I don’t care if it’s a Panoz, Lola, or Dallara; they all have initial build issues that need to be fixed.

These fixes can be as simple as stripped out fasteners. Not a big issue, but they still have to be fixed. If they are left as is, they will fail in time, most likely during a race.

How many times have you seen a lower tier team have small problems plague them race after race and it’s chalked up to ‘bad luck”?

If you consider Newman/Haas/Lanigan, Forsythe, and RSPORT the three top teams coming into this season, another strength for the defending champions is they are a consistent organization when you look at the driver and crew roster.

Graham Rahal and the addition of Lanigan are the only changes for Newman/Haas/Lanigan.

Forsythe wasn’t a confirmed two-car operation until the start of the season. We are less then half way into the season and they have already run three different drivers. If a capable driver arrives with proper sponsorship, expect to see another driver in the #7 car.

RSPORTS is a merger of hospitality and technical information, but in my mind they are still two single car teams. I firmly believe that you need to be under the same roof day in and day out to share the same philosophy and vision to operate as a two-car team.

Justin Wilson is my leading contender to take on Bourdais. He is a controlled and focused driver with a dedicated season crew that is determined to fight until the end. If RuSPORT was still a true two-car operation I think we would see a new champion in 2007.

What teams have the best chance to take a few race wins this year? Team Australia and Minardi Team USA.

Aussie Vineyards relieved the sponsorship problems that hampered Derrick Walker’s team performance in the past. You could see improvements mid-way through the 2006 season. Walker has always had the run fast and forget about a fuel mileage approach to racing. With all events being timed this year, that could play into the hands of Will Power who won the season opener and his teammate Simon Pagenaud.

Their new name is Minardi Team USA. No disrespect to Paul Stoddart, but the name you need to remember is Keith Wiggins. Stoddart brings the sponsorship, a strong rookie, and fresh attitude to the team that has changed its name three times in three seasons, but it’s Wiggins and the engineering staff that keep the team competitive.

Any of the above teams could win a race on any given weekend, but it’s the consistency of the defending champion that will bring home the Vanderbilt Cup.

There are five races in the next six weeks. If there is a team that can prove my prediction of four in a row for Bourdais wrong, now is the time to make it happen.